El Precio de la Accesibilidad en España
Un análisis de 100 mercados municipales de vivienda que cubren 236.970 compraventas de pisos de segunda mano, examinando la relación entre accesibilidad de barrio y precios inmobiliarios.
Resumen ejecutivo: Accesibilidad y precios inmobiliarios en 100 municipios
En los 100 municipios más poblados de España, los lugares con mejor accesibilidad cotidiana tienden a registrar precios más altos por metro cuadrado en pisos de segunda mano, pero la accesibilidad explica solo una parte de las grandes diferencias entre los mercados locales de vivienda.
Municipios con precios de vivienda similares pueden tener puntuaciones BarrioRadar radicalmente distintas, y municipios con puntuaciones similares pueden registrar precios muy diferentes.
This study evaluates 250m micro-grids across 2,904,985 cadastral address portals linked with official transaction records from the Consejo General del Notariado, analysing 100 municipality-level price observations covering 236,970 resale-flat transactions (214,101 price-informed) across Spain's 100 largest municipalities.
Este estudio analiza el precio medio real por metro cuadrado (€/m²) en transacciones de pisos de segunda mano según escrituras públicas del Consejo General del Notariado. Refleja importes reales de compraventa formalizada, no precios de oferta en portales, presupuestos totales de compra ni capacidad de pago de los hogares.
Comparativas reales entre municipios: qué significa en la práctica
La especificación principal es un modelo log-lineal de corte transversal: ln(precio_m2) = α + β · (Puntuación) + ε estimado sobre N = 100 observaciones municipales. La inferencia estadística se valida mediante errores estándar robustos a heterocedasticidad (MacKinnon & White HC3: SE = 0,002185, t = 5,67, p = 1,34 x 10⁻⁷, IC 95%: [0,00806, 0,01673]). El modelo explica el 21,3% de la varianza del precio entre municipios (R² = 0,2129, R² ajustado = 0,2048). La retransformación utiliza predicciones geométricas medianas; el factor de smearing no paramétrico de Duan es 1,0678.
1. El patrón en los 100 municipios: mayor accesibilidad suele acompañarse de precios más altos
Examen de la relación empírica entre el Índice Maestro BarrioRadar ponderado por portales y los precios oficiales del Notariado por metro cuadrado en los 100 mayores municipios de España.
Cada círculo representa uno de los 100 municipios más poblados de España. La línea de tendencia ascendente ilustra que, entre los municipios analizados, aquellos con mayor puntuación de accesibilidad cotidiana suelen presentar precios más elevados por metro cuadrado en pisos de segunda mano.
| Rank | Municipio | Provincia | Puntuación Maestra | Transporte | Segunda Mano €/m² | Compraventas | €/m² Estimado | Diferencia vs Tendencia (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Barcelona | Barcelona | 76.3 | 81.0 | €4,753/m² | 15,122 | €3,585/m² | +32.6% |
| #2 | Santa Coloma de Gramenet | Barcelona | 67.7 | 59.7 | €2,417/m² | 1,245 | €3,223/m² | -25.0% |
| #3 | L'Hospitalet de Llobregat | Barcelona | 67.4 | 69.1 | €2,804/m² | 3,343 | €3,211/m² | -12.7% |
| #4 | Madrid | Madrid | 64.5 | 69.8 | €5,274/m² | 36,347 | €3,097/m² | +70.3% |
| #5 | València | València/Valencia | 60.6 | 71.4 | €2,679/m² | 8,730 | €2,951/m² | -9.2% |
| #6 | Barakaldo | Bizkaia | 60.6 | 43.2 | €2,895/m² | 1,211 | €2,951/m² | -1.9% |
| #7 | Salamanca | Salamanca | 59.2 | 61.3 | €1,819/m² | 2,040 | €2,900/m² | -37.3% |
| #8 | Sevilla | Sevilla | 58.2 | 63.2 | €2,342/m² | 7,353 | €2,865/m² | -18.2% |
| #9 | Pamplona/Iruña | Navarra | 57.3 | 65.3 | €2,866/m² | 1,710 | €2,833/m² | +1.2% |
| #10 | Granada | Granada | 56.1 | 69.2 | €1,934/m² | 2,984 | €2,791/m² | -30.7% |
| #11 | A Coruña | A Coruña | 55.6 | 66.4 | €2,777/m² | 2,063 | €2,774/m² | +0.1% |
| #12 | Cádiz | Cádiz | 55.4 | 36.7 | €2,682/m² | 1,104 | €2,767/m² | -3.1% |
2. ¿Qué componentes de la accesibilidad influyen más en el precio?
La comparación de modelos de regresión log-lineal individuales revela que la conectividad en transporte público exhibe la relación estadística más sólida con los precios residenciales.
Compara cuánta variación de precios entre municipios explica cada una de las cuatro dimensiones de accesibilidad por separado. El transporte público lidera con un 29,2%, seguido de familia y educación (18,0%), ocio y restauración (9,3%) y servicios esenciales diarios (8,4%).
| Dimensión | N | Pearson r | Spearman ρ | R² (Varianza Precios Log) | Pendiente de Regresión (β) | Δ% por +10 Pts | Intervalo de Confianza 95% | Valor p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Transit | 93 | 0.5064 | 0.5198 | 0.2918 (29.2%) | 0.0107 | +11.28% | [0.338, 0.644] | < 0.001 |
| Family & Education | 100 | 0.3878 | 0.4072 | 0.1797 (18.0%) | 0.0126 | +13.38% | [0.207, 0.543] | < 0.001 |
| Lifestyle & Dining | 100 | 0.2615 | 0.2759 | 0.0931 (9.3%) | 0.0071 | +7.38% | [0.069, 0.435] | 0.002 |
| Daily Essentials | 100 | 0.2388 | 0.2576 | 0.0843 (8.4%) | 0.0078 | +8.17% | [0.044, 0.416] | 0.003 |
3. Misma accesibilidad, precios muy diferentes
Municipios con puntuaciones de accesibilidad prácticamente idénticas cotizan con frecuencia a niveles de precios enormemente dispares, demostrando que la accesibilidad es solo un factor en el mercado inmobiliario.
| Municipality A | Score A | Price A (€/m²) | Municipality B | Score B | Price B (€/m²) | Score Diff | Price Spread (€/m²) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donostia/San Sebastián (Gipuzkoa) | 52.3 | €6,337/m² | Manresa (Barcelona) | 51.8 | €1,355/m² | 0.5 pts | +€4,982/m² (+367.8%) |
| Granada (Granada) | 56.1 | €1,934/m² | Donostia/San Sebastián (Gipuzkoa) | 52.3 | €6,337/m² | 3.8 pts | +€4,403/m² (+227.7%) |
| Donostia/San Sebastián (Gipuzkoa) | 52.3 | €6,337/m² | Zaragoza (Zaragoza) | 49.1 | €2,044/m² | 3.2 pts | +€4,292/m² (+210.0%) |
| Donostia/San Sebastián (Gipuzkoa) | 52.3 | €6,337/m² | Girona (Girona) | 48.6 | €2,387/m² | 3.7 pts | +€3,950/m² (+165.5%) |
| Cáceres (Cáceres) | 30.2 | €1,153/m² | Sant Cugat del Vallès (Barcelona) | 29.8 | €4,924/m² | 0.4 pts | +€3,771/m² (+327.0%) |
| Donostia/San Sebastián (Gipuzkoa) | 52.3 | €6,337/m² | Torrejón de Ardoz (Madrid) | 52.2 | €2,572/m² | 0.1 pts | +€3,765/m² (+146.4%) |
4. Precios similares, accesibilidad muy diferente
A niveles de precio similares por metro cuadrado, los compradores encuentran perfiles de accesibilidad cotidiana radicalmente distintos entre mercados urbanos españoles.
| Municipality A | Price A (€/m²) | Score A | Municipality B | Price B (€/m²) | Score B | Price Spread | Accessibility Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona (Barcelona) | €4,753/m² | 76.3 | Sant Cugat del Vallès (Barcelona) | €4,924/m² | 29.8 | €171/m² | 46.5 pts |
| Salamanca (Salamanca) | €1,819/m² | 59.2 | Chiclana de la Frontera (Cádiz) | €1,808/m² | 15.1 | €12/m² | 44.1 pts |
| Santa Coloma de Gramenet (Barcelona) | €2,417/m² | 67.7 | Santiago de Compostela (A Coruña) | €2,405/m² | 24.7 | €12/m² | 43.0 pts |
| Hospitalet de Llobregat, L' (Barcelona) | €2,804/m² | 67.4 | Rivas-Vaciamadrid (Madrid) | €2,673/m² | 24.9 | €131/m² | 42.5 pts |
| Barcelona (Barcelona) | €4,753/m² | 76.3 | Alcobendas (Madrid) | €4,654/m² | 36.5 | €99/m² | 39.8 pts |
| Barakaldo (Bizkaia) | €2,895/m² | 60.6 | Mijas (Málaga) | €2,955/m² | 22.0 | €60/m² | 38.6 pts |
5. Dónde se alejan más los precios del patrón de los 100 municipios
La divergencia respecto a la curva de regresión log-lineal identifica qué mercados municipales cotizan por encima o por debajo de lo previsto exclusivamente por su dotación de accesibilidad.
Las barras hacia la derecha (rojo) indican municipios que cotizan a un precio por m² superior al predicho solo por accesibilidad; las barras hacia la izquierda (azul) indican precios inferiores a los predichos. Esto responde a factores económicos locales, orografía o turismo, no a que el mercado esté 'sobrevalorado' o 'infravalorado'.
Top 5 Municipalities Above National Accessibility Trend
| Municipality | Score | Actual €/m² | Fitted €/m² | Difference (€/m²) | Deviation vs Trend (%) | Transactions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sant Cugat del Vallès (Barcelona) | 29.8 | €4,924/m² | €2,015/m² | +€2,910/m² | +144.4% | 534 |
| Marbella (Málaga) | 21.6 | €4,371/m² | €1,820/m² | +€2,551/m² | +140.2% | 2,793 |
| Donostia/San Sebastián (Gipuzkoa) | 52.3 | €6,337/m² | €2,663/m² | +€3,674/m² | +138.0% | 1,619 |
| Pozuelo de Alarcón (Madrid) | 35.4 | €5,018/m² | €2,160/m² | +€2,858/m² | +132.3% | 462 |
| Alcobendas (Madrid) | 36.5 | €4,654/m² | €2,189/m² | +€2,465/m² | +112.6% | 903 |
Top 5 Municipalities Below National Accessibility Trend
| Municipality | Score | Actual €/m² | Fitted €/m² | Difference (€/m²) | Deviation vs Trend (%) | Transactions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manresa (Barcelona) | 51.8 | €1,355/m² | €2,646/m² | -€1,292/m² | -48.8% | 981 |
| Lleida (Lleida) | 43.8 | €1,338/m² | €2,396/m² | -€1,059/m² | -44.2% | 1,824 |
| Cáceres (Cáceres) | 30.2 | €1,153/m² | €2,025/m² | -€872/m² | -43.0% | 1,581 |
| Lugo (Lugo) | 27.8 | €1,189/m² | €1,965/m² | -€777/m² | -39.5% | 958 |
| Albacete (Albacete) | 44.3 | €1,470/m² | €2,411/m² | -€941/m² | -39.0% | 1,637 |
6. ¿Cambia el patrón entre pisos y chalets, o entre segunda mano y obra nueva?
La evaluación de los modelos en cuatro formatos residenciales revela divergencias estructurales marcadas entre la vivienda colectiva y la unifamiliar aislada.
| Tipología Residencial | N | Compraventas | Pearson r | Spearman ρ | Pendiente de Regresión (β) | Δ% por +10 Pts | R² (Varianza Precios Log) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resale Flats | 100 | 236,970 | 0.4144 | 0.4571 | 0.0124 | +13.19% | 0.2129 (21.3%) |
| New-Build Flats | 99 | 27,553 | 0.4749 | 0.4923 | 0.0123 | +13.08% | 0.2433 (24.3%) |
| Resale Houses | 100 | 29,660 | 0.3272 | 0.3788 | 0.0123 | +13.06% | 0.1410 (14.1%) |
| New-Build Houses Sparse Coverage (61/100) | 61 | 2,017 | 0.2425 | 0.3011 | 0.0081 | +8.42% | 0.0607 (6.1%) |
7. Validación de resultados: ¿Depende la relación únicamente de Madrid y Barcelona?
La asociación positiva se mantiene tras excluir las observaciones más influyentes y tras excluir Madrid y Barcelona.
Secondary Transaction-Weighted Model (WLS)
In a secondary transaction-weighted sensitivity analysis weighting each municipality by its informed transaction count, the association is estimated at +19.5% per +10 score points (R² = 0.497). The unweighted Top 100 model remains our primary benchmark because the fundamental unit of analysis is the municipality.
8. Base de datos completa de los 100 municipios
Conjunto de datos transversal completo que integra las puntuaciones de accesibilidad BarrioRadar v1.1 con las compraventas oficiales del Consejo General del Notariado.
| Rank | Municipio | Provincia | Población | Puntuación Maestra | Transporte | Servicios Básicos | Ocio | Familia | Segunda Mano €/m² | Compraventas | €/m² Estimado | Diferencia vs Tendencia (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Barcelona | Barcelona | 1,702,547 | 76.3 | 81.0 | 74.7 | 82.0 | 67.9 | €4,753/m² | 15,122 | €3,585/m² | +32.6% |
| #2 | Santa Coloma de Gramenet | Barcelona | 121,203 | 67.7 | 59.7 | 77.3 | 76.1 | 58.2 | €2,417/m² | 1,245 | €3,223/m² | -25.0% |
| #3 | L'Hospitalet de Llobregat | Barcelona | 279,993 | 67.4 | 69.1 | 73.1 | 74.2 | 51.8 | €2,804/m² | 3,343 | €3,211/m² | -12.7% |
| #4 | Madrid | Madrid | 3,416,771 | 64.5 | 69.8 | 65.0 | 61.8 | 61.4 | €5,274/m² | 36,347 | €3,097/m² | +70.3% |
| #5 | València | València/Valencia | 825,948 | 60.6 | 71.4 | 64.5 | 63.3 | 38.9 | €2,679/m² | 8,730 | €2,951/m² | -9.2% |
| #6 | Barakaldo | Bizkaia | 101,984 | 60.6 | 43.2 | 68.2 | 81.6 | 60.7 | €2,895/m² | 1,211 | €2,951/m² | -1.9% |
| #7 | Salamanca | Salamanca | 144,866 | 59.2 | 61.3 | 63.8 | 62.8 | 48.4 | €1,819/m² | 2,040 | €2,900/m² | -37.3% |
| #8 | Sevilla | Sevilla | 687,488 | 58.2 | 63.2 | 63.5 | 59.9 | 44.0 | €2,342/m² | 7,353 | €2,865/m² | -18.2% |
| #9 | Pamplona/Iruña | Navarra | 207,777 | 57.3 | 65.3 | 67.8 | 58.9 | 29.4 | €2,866/m² | 1,710 | €2,833/m² | +1.2% |
| #10 | Granada | Granada | 232,717 | 56.1 | 69.2 | 64.8 | 54.2 | 27.8 | €1,934/m² | 2,984 | €2,791/m² | -30.7% |
| #11 | A Coruña | A Coruña | 249,261 | 55.6 | 66.4 | 65.7 | 60.0 | 24.1 | €2,777/m² | 2,063 | €2,774/m² | +0.1% |
| #12 | Cádiz | Cádiz | 110,914 | 55.4 | 36.7 | 77.9 | 73.1 | 43.0 | €2,682/m² | 1,104 | €2,767/m² | -3.1% |
| #13 | Badalona | Barcelona | 227,083 | 54.2 | 37.8 | 72.4 | 69.2 | 47.3 | €2,667/m² | 2,504 | €2,726/m² | -2.2% |
| #14 | Cornellà de Llobregat | Barcelona | 91,589 | 53.6 | 70.3 | 59.0 | 55.2 | 22.8 | €2,774/m² | 1,011 | €2,706/m² | +2.5% |
| #15 | Donostia/San Sebastián | Gipuzkoa | 189,093 | 52.3 | 62.2 | 55.8 | 51.8 | 38.0 | €6,337/m² | 1,619 | €2,663/m² | +138.0% |
| #16 | Torrejón de Ardoz | Madrid | 140,626 | 52.2 | 45.7 | 55.2 | 58.6 | 57.9 | €2,572/m² | 1,139 | €2,659/m² | -3.3% |
| #17 | Manresa | Barcelona | 80,201 | 51.8 | 58.6 | 62.2 | 52.5 | 28.8 | €1,355/m² | 981 | €2,646/m² | -48.8% |
| #18 | Zaragoza | Zaragoza | 686,986 | 49.1 | 47.4 | 54.8 | 51.3 | 46.1 | €2,044/m² | 7,015 | €2,559/m² | -20.1% |
| #19 | Girona | Girona | 107,032 | 48.6 | 42.0 | 53.4 | 59.0 | 49.7 | €2,387/m² | 992 | €2,543/m² | -6.2% |
| #20 | Mataró | Barcelona | 131,798 | 45.9 | 54.9 | 51.4 | 47.9 | 25.0 | €2,371/m² | 1,546 | €2,460/m² | -3.6% |
| #21 | Bilbao | Bizkaia | 348,089 | 45.7 | 24.1 | 69.9 | 67.9 | 34.5 | €3,543/m² | 3,818 | €2,454/m² | +44.4% |
| #22 | Móstoles | Madrid | 214,006 | 45.0 | 54.5 | 41.7 | 42.4 | 47.7 | €2,527/m² | 1,625 | €2,432/m² | +3.9% |
| #23 | Burgos | Burgos | 175,895 | 44.7 | 48.5 | 49.5 | 48.7 | 35.5 | €1,834/m² | 1,913 | €2,423/m² | -24.3% |
| #24 | Fuengirola | Málaga | 85,859 | 44.3 | 29.6 | 55.9 | 71.0 | 34.5 | €3,492/m² | 1,303 | €2,411/m² | +44.8% |
| #25 | Albacete | Albacete | 174,137 | 44.3 | — | 46.1 | 47.5 | 38.2 | €1,470/m² | 1,637 | €2,411/m² | -39.0% |
| #26 | Lleida | Lleida | 144,739 | 43.8 | 41.2 | 50.5 | 51.1 | 35.7 | €1,338/m² | 1,824 | €2,396/m² | -44.2% |
| #27 | Santa Cruz de Tenerife | Santa Cruz de Tenerife | 211,359 | 43.6 | 59.0 | 46.1 | 41.7 | 26.3 | €2,213/m² | 1,470 | €2,391/m² | -7.4% |
| #28 | Valladolid | Valladolid | 300,618 | 43.3 | 50.4 | 46.4 | 48.4 | 31.7 | €1,676/m² | 3,312 | €2,382/m² | -29.6% |
| #29 | Alacant/Alicante | Alacant/Alicante | 358,720 | 43.2 | 53.5 | 42.9 | 44.0 | 33.6 | €1,990/m² | 5,238 | €2,379/m² | -16.3% |
| #30 | Fuenlabrada | Madrid | 190,790 | 42.8 | 44.3 | 50.4 | 44.0 | 35.2 | €2,478/m² | 1,449 | €2,367/m² | +4.7% |
| #31 | Getafe | Madrid | 189,906 | 42.6 | 47.4 | 48.2 | 35.7 | 40.0 | €2,951/m² | 1,455 | €2,361/m² | +25.0% |
| #32 | Alcalá de Henares | Madrid | 200,702 | 42.4 | 47.9 | 41.5 | 40.3 | 45.9 | €2,429/m² | 1,954 | €2,355/m² | +3.1% |
| #33 | Vitoria-Gasteiz | Araba/Álava | 257,968 | 42.4 | 41.7 | 45.6 | 55.9 | 32.2 | €2,744/m² | 2,489 | €2,355/m² | +16.5% |
| #34 | Sabadell | Barcelona | 222,177 | 41.6 | 41.9 | 55.8 | 38.8 | 30.0 | €2,167/m² | 2,586 | €2,332/m² | -7.1% |
| #35 | Leganés | Madrid | 194,084 | 40.4 | 58.4 | 42.2 | 30.5 | 29.3 | €2,889/m² | 1,448 | €2,298/m² | +25.8% |
| #36 | Coslada | Madrid | 80,760 | 40.2 | 26.2 | 54.0 | 50.6 | 44.4 | €2,812/m² | 635 | €2,292/m² | +22.7% |
| #37 | Las Palmas de Gran Canaria | Las Palmas | 380,436 | 39.6 | 52.0 | 43.9 | 32.6 | 30.2 | €2,346/m² | 3,218 | €2,275/m² | +3.1% |
| #38 | Alcorcón | Madrid | 173,625 | 39.5 | 54.1 | 40.4 | 28.8 | 37.3 | €2,994/m² | 1,194 | €2,272/m² | +31.8% |
| #39 | San Fernando | Cádiz | 93,645 | 38.8 | 30.6 | 60.0 | 39.6 | 28.8 | €1,743/m² | 953 | €2,252/m² | -22.6% |
| #40 | Tarragona | Tarragona | 141,151 | 38.4 | 41.1 | 47.7 | 42.8 | 24.0 | €1,714/m² | 1,871 | €2,241/m² | -23.5% |
| #41 | Palma | Illes Balears | 431,521 | 38.4 | 41.1 | 47.3 | 47.3 | 20.3 | €3,950/m² | 3,800 | €2,241/m² | +76.2% |
| #42 | Sant Boi de Llobregat | Barcelona | 84,831 | 38.0 | 17.4 | 60.4 | 58.9 | 35.5 | €2,786/m² | 875 | €2,230/m² | +24.9% |
| #43 | Logroño | La Rioja | 151,164 | 37.8 | 24.2 | 46.7 | 58.7 | 39.1 | €1,643/m² | 1,959 | €2,225/m² | -26.1% |
| #44 | San Sebastián de los Reyes | Madrid | 94,969 | 37.4 | 47.0 | 31.3 | 29.0 | 49.7 | €3,558/m² | 721 | €2,214/m² | +60.7% |
| #45 | Alcobendas | Madrid | 121,373 | 36.5 | 49.1 | 29.6 | 31.6 | 44.2 | €4,654/m² | 903 | €2,189/m² | +112.6% |
| #46 | Terrassa | Barcelona | 228,708 | 36.4 | 34.3 | 48.5 | 34.3 | 34.6 | €2,086/m² | 2,964 | €2,186/m² | -4.6% |
| #47 | Benalmádena | Málaga | 77,654 | 36.2 | 36.6 | 43.8 | 42.7 | 27.2 | €3,142/m² | 1,430 | €2,181/m² | +44.1% |
| #48 | Málaga | Málaga | 591,637 | 36.0 | 49.9 | 45.4 | 28.6 | 15.6 | €3,039/m² | 4,429 | €2,176/m² | +39.7% |
| #49 | Pozuelo de Alarcón | Madrid | 89,378 | 35.4 | 54.1 | 32.2 | 24.7 | 34.8 | €5,018/m² | 462 | €2,160/m² | +132.3% |
| #50 | Oviedo | Asturias | 220,543 | 34.9 | 45.3 | 38.5 | 39.2 | 21.0 | €1,812/m² | 2,982 | €2,146/m² | -15.6% |
| #51 | Gandia | València/Valencia | 80,095 | 34.2 | 29.0 | 39.1 | 47.0 | 34.1 | €1,487/m² | 1,491 | €2,128/m² | -30.1% |
| #52 | Castelló de la Plana/Castellón de la Plana | Castelló/Castellón | 180,379 | 33.8 | 45.6 | 36.7 | 35.9 | 20.4 | €1,301/m² | 1,974 | €2,117/m² | -38.6% |
| #53 | Toledo | Toledo | 86,526 | 33.1 | 41.1 | 37.7 | 36.4 | 20.0 | €1,687/m² | 777 | €2,099/m² | -19.6% |
| #54 | Valdemoro | Madrid | 83,507 | 32.4 | 37.2 | 29.6 | 30.1 | 43.0 | €2,190/m² | 809 | €2,081/m² | +5.2% |
| #55 | Jaén | Jaén | 112,074 | 31.9 | 12.2 | 53.3 | 50.8 | 31.1 | €1,279/m² | 1,349 | €2,068/m² | -38.2% |
| #56 | Santander | Cantabria | 174,101 | 31.7 | 24.2 | 49.5 | 36.3 | 28.2 | €2,859/m² | 1,916 | €2,063/m² | +38.6% |
| #57 | Parla | Madrid | 134,833 | 30.9 | 35.6 | 33.6 | 21.2 | 40.1 | €1,995/m² | 1,195 | €2,042/m² | -2.3% |
| #58 | San Cristóbal de La Laguna | Santa Cruz de Tenerife | 160,258 | 30.3 | 48.2 | 34.5 | 23.3 | 15.9 | €1,861/m² | 846 | €2,027/m² | -8.2% |
| #59 | Cáceres | Cáceres | 96,441 | 30.2 | 40.5 | 41.7 | 25.7 | 10.1 | €1,153/m² | 1,581 | €2,025/m² | -43.0% |
| #60 | Estepona | Málaga | 78,413 | 30.1 | — | 33.9 | 30.2 | 24.4 | €3,281/m² | 1,985 | €2,022/m² | +62.3% |
| #61 | Dos Hermanas | Sevilla | 140,430 | 30.0 | 27.6 | 44.3 | 33.4 | 21.6 | €1,354/m² | 1,683 | €2,020/m² | -33.0% |
| #62 | Las Rozas de Madrid | Madrid | 98,590 | 29.8 | 58.0 | 23.1 | 19.7 | 25.6 | €3,908/m² | 717 | €2,015/m² | +94.0% |
| #63 | Sant Cugat del Vallès | Barcelona | 98,621 | 29.8 | 41.9 | 34.3 | 29.4 | 17.5 | €4,924/m² | 534 | €2,015/m² | +144.4% |
| #64 | Torrent | València/Valencia | 89,401 | 29.8 | 26.7 | 35.3 | 44.0 | 22.5 | €1,453/m² | 866 | €2,015/m² | -27.9% |
| #65 | Ourense | Ourense | 104,891 | 28.3 | 28.1 | 33.7 | 35.5 | 24.3 | €1,368/m² | 911 | €1,978/m² | -30.8% |
| #66 | Reus | Tarragona | 109,930 | 28.2 | 5.0 | 53.5 | 51.0 | 27.5 | €1,453/m² | 1,330 | €1,975/m² | -26.4% |
| #67 | Lugo | Lugo | 99,482 | 27.8 | 21.9 | 41.2 | 37.5 | 18.9 | €1,189/m² | 958 | €1,965/m² | -39.5% |
| #68 | Almería | Almería | 202,675 | 27.6 | 18.1 | 42.8 | 38.7 | 25.8 | €1,570/m² | 2,167 | €1,961/m² | -19.9% |
| #69 | Roquetas de Mar | Almería | 109,204 | 26.7 | 27.6 | 34.7 | 28.9 | 26.5 | €1,438/m² | 2,003 | €1,939/m² | -25.8% |
| #70 | León | León | 122,243 | 25.8 | 5.0 | 47.4 | 49.5 | 25.6 | €1,398/m² | 1,576 | €1,917/m² | -27.1% |
| #71 | Rivas-Vaciamadrid | Madrid | 101,949 | 24.9 | 21.1 | 33.2 | 30.8 | 33.0 | €2,673/m² | 435 | €1,896/m² | +41.0% |
| #72 | Santiago de Compostela | A Coruña | 99,536 | 24.7 | 24.1 | 35.3 | 29.3 | 19.1 | €2,405/m² | 554 | €1,891/m² | +27.1% |
| #73 | Pontevedra | Pontevedra | 83,077 | 24.6 | 40.7 | 29.1 | 19.8 | 13.7 | €1,918/m² | 553 | €1,889/m² | +1.6% |
| #74 | Rubí | Barcelona | 81,532 | 24.2 | 19.2 | 31.1 | 30.3 | 27.3 | €2,203/m² | 776 | €1,880/m² | +17.2% |
| #75 | Gijón | Asturias | 268,561 | 23.8 | 28.6 | 29.9 | 26.6 | 15.1 | €2,168/m² | 3,002 | €1,870/m² | +15.9% |
| #76 | Vigo | Pontevedra | 293,977 | 23.3 | 20.8 | 37.0 | 25.9 | 19.2 | €2,237/m² | 1,850 | €1,859/m² | +20.4% |
| #77 | Telde | Las Palmas | 102,867 | 22.3 | — | 26.2 | 13.5 | 25.2 | €1,660/m² | 568 | €1,836/m² | -9.6% |
| #78 | Mijas | Málaga | 93,302 | 22.0 | 23.3 | 27.7 | 28.2 | 19.2 | €2,955/m² | 2,054 | €1,829/m² | +61.6% |
| #79 | Huelva | Huelva | 143,290 | 21.9 | 10.3 | 49.7 | 30.5 | 12.3 | €1,431/m² | 1,605 | €1,827/m² | -21.7% |
| #80 | Ceuta | Ceuta | 83,229 | 21.7 | — | 29.3 | 15.5 | 16.3 | €2,010/m² | 598 | €1,822/m² | +10.3% |
| #81 | Marbella | Málaga | 159,000 | 21.6 | — | 27.6 | 23.9 | 10.4 | €4,371/m² | 2,793 | €1,820/m² | +140.2% |
| #82 | Torrevieja | Alacant/Alicante | 94,803 | 20.9 | 6.2 | 40.7 | 43.3 | 17.9 | €2,031/m² | 4,739 | €1,804/m² | +12.5% |
| #83 | Vélez-Málaga | Málaga | 85,990 | 20.6 | 15.9 | 34.1 | 26.8 | 17.5 | €2,294/m² | 766 | €1,798/m² | +27.6% |
| #84 | Melilla | Melilla | 85,811 | 19.8 | — | 29.5 | 17.4 | 7.9 | €1,955/m² | 445 | €1,780/m² | +9.9% |
| #85 | Elx/Elche | Alacant/Alicante | 243,128 | 19.4 | 11.7 | 30.7 | 29.5 | 16.9 | €1,372/m² | 2,369 | €1,771/m² | -22.5% |
| #86 | Talavera de la Reina | Toledo | 84,738 | 19.0 | 5.0 | 35.0 | 33.2 | 18.7 | €1,123/m² | 1,126 | €1,762/m² | -36.2% |
| #87 | Arona | Santa Cruz de Tenerife | 86,624 | 18.9 | 31.8 | 23.5 | 18.9 | 11.7 | €3,253/m² | 1,328 | €1,760/m² | +84.8% |
| #88 | Córdoba | Córdoba | 322,811 | 18.5 | 8.4 | 34.4 | 26.0 | 18.8 | €1,607/m² | 4,087 | €1,751/m² | -8.3% |
| #89 | Algeciras | Cádiz | 124,978 | 18.4 | 13.7 | 33.6 | 21.3 | 16.7 | €1,216/m² | 1,153 | €1,749/m² | -30.5% |
| #90 | Chiclana de la Frontera | Cádiz | 89,794 | 15.1 | 9.3 | 29.5 | 22.5 | 13.1 | €1,808/m² | 681 | €1,679/m² | +7.7% |
| #91 | Guadalajara | Guadalajara | 90,909 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 23.8 | 27.4 | 26.2 | €1,694/m² | 766 | €1,677/m² | +1.0% |
| #92 | El Puerto de Santa María | Cádiz | 89,960 | 14.7 | 14.1 | 25.4 | 17.4 | 11.4 | €2,151/m² | 834 | €1,671/m² | +28.7% |
| #93 | El Ejido | Almería | 90,135 | 14.3 | 12.1 | 25.2 | 15.7 | 21.4 | €1,081/m² | 1,357 | €1,663/m² | -35.0% |
| #94 | Badajoz | Badajoz | 150,570 | 13.3 | 5.0 | 32.8 | 19.9 | 9.3 | €1,437/m² | 1,590 | €1,642/m² | -12.5% |
| #95 | Murcia | Murcia | 474,617 | 12.9 | 11.3 | 23.6 | 13.6 | 12.6 | €1,446/m² | 4,508 | €1,634/m² | -11.5% |
| #96 | Cartagena | Murcia | 219,777 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 30.1 | 18.7 | 11.2 | €1,449/m² | 2,168 | €1,622/m² | -10.7% |
| #97 | Orihuela | Alacant/Alicante | 83,720 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 23.0 | 20.8 | 12.5 | €2,127/m² | 2,449 | €1,614/m² | +31.8% |
| #98 | Jerez de la Frontera | Cádiz | 213,688 | 11.4 | 10.0 | 23.7 | 17.7 | 8.4 | €1,472/m² | 1,989 | €1,604/m² | -8.2% |
| #99 | Molina de Segura | Murcia | 77,493 | 11.2 | — | 11.9 | 8.8 | 12.6 | €1,009/m² | 672 | €1,600/m² | -36.9% |
| #100 | Lorca | Murcia | 98,334 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 16.7 | 17.2 | 12.4 | €1,109/m² | 511 | €1,574/m² | -29.6% |
9. Metodología, procedencia de datos y limitaciones
Documentación técnica exhaustiva sobre fuentes de datos, enlaces geográficos, especificaciones econométricas y límites analíticos.
1. Official Real Estate Transactions • Consejo General del Notariado
Property transaction metrics are derived from Consejo General del Notariado. Mandatory source attribution: Según el Portal Estadístico del Notariado, desarrollado por el Consejo General del Notariado.
The primary metric evaluates resale urban flats (clase_finca_urbana_id = 14,
tipo_construccion_id = 9). The reported precio_m2 represents an aggregate
arithmetic measure computed from 214,101 informed transaction records out of 236,970 total represented
transactions, rather than a median. Observations where transaction sample sizes fall below threshold (N
< 10) are subject to official statistical suppression and are treated strictly as missing values.
2. Territorial Cohort Definition
The study cohort comprises Spain's 100 largest municipalities by official resident population according to the INE Padrón Municipal (ranging from Madrid with 3,422,447 residents to Soria with 40,404 residents). Together, these 100 municipalities account for 22,646,615 residents (47.2% of Spain's total population) and 2,904,985 cadastral address portals across 96,761 evaluated 250m grid cells.
3. BarrioRadar Scoring Model (v1.1) & Geographic Weighting
Accessibility scores are calculated using the BarrioRadar v1.1 scoring engine across uniform 250m × 250m grid cells, combining GTFS scheduled transit timetables (30%), daily essentials (30%), lifestyle venues (20%), and family amenities (20%). To represent where residents actually live rather than empty territory, municipal aggregate scores are weighted by CartoCiudad cadastral address portals.
4. Econometric Specification, Robust Inference & Retransformation
The primary regression specification is log-linear: ln(precio_m2) = α + β · (Score) + ε
estimated across N = 100 municipal observations. Statistical inference is validated using
heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (MacKinnon & White HC3: SE = 0.002185, t = 5.67, p = 1.34 ×
10⁻⁷, 95% CI: [0.00806, 0.01673]). The percentage price association per 10 score points is computed as
(exp(10 · β) - 1) × 100%, yielding +13.19% (HC3 95% CI: +8.39% to +18.21%).
Fitted €/m² values in tables and visualisations represent geometric model-median
predictions (exp(α + β · Score)). For reference, Duan's non-parametric smearing
factor across model residuals is 1.0678, yielding a smeared sample conditional mean
prediction of €2,338/m² (matching sample actual mean €2,336/m²).
Association does not imply causation: Municipal property prices may also reflect factors not modelled in this study, including household income, employment structure, housing supply constraints, geographical boundaries, tourism, coastal proximity, foreign demand, and individual property physical characteristics.
Cómo Citar Este Estudio
If referencing this dataset or research in academic research, journalistic reporting, or policy publications, please cite as:
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